In Anticipation of a Future Chain E-Mail:

by Glenn Littrell

A chart has begun popping up all over the place and will probably be showing up in emails soon, you know the ones, chain mail which will make some asinine unfounded  political claims implying the chart proves some anti-lib or anti-Obama point. It’s frustrating because in a country with such an open and free press there are enough facts floating around at any one time to provide valid criticism and debate without making stuff up. In this case the original chart only draws attention to limited facts [which party controlled congress] leaving people to draw a view based on limited data and no explanations.

Fine, but here's a version of the chart with a little more info.

So does our new version of the chart support or dispute the suggestions of the original chart?

The original excluded information on who was in the Presidency at the time as if their was no relative impact. It also doesn’t reflect any events that may of had a short or long term effect on the economy. The original figures presented in the Bureau of Labor Statistics, which were credited as the source of the original chart, are raw figures. Does overlaying one timeline [who controlled congress] prove a correlation by itself? Its like those election year comparison between who wins the world series and the which party wins the presidency. If there is a visual correlation does that mean there is a real connection between the world series and the presidency? Its not my suggestion here that who controls congress is not relevant. My point is that by itself it is suggestive more than it is conclusive. The original and this updated chart do not go back before 95, the obvious intent being to 'cherry pick' the info, so if you extend the chart back to before 1995 you will probably see that during all presidencies and shifts in congress, the most conclusive pattern is that no term has resulted in a graph line that is one directional. Even the Obama/Democratic line is starting to curve, so why don’t we give it a minute before we draw our doomsday conclusions.

You can go to the BLS website [ http://data.bls.gov/PDQ/servlet/SurveyOutputServlet ] and enter your own parameters and then draw your own conclusions.

Additional point: If I were to point out that the origin of the current high unemployment rates were the result of a excessive spending and deregulation under Bush we would find ourselves being chastised for continuing to "BIOB" [Blame It On Bush]. So even though Republicans blamed [and still do] Clinton for everything throughout the Bush administration we'll leave it up to others to decide whose recession it is.

by Glenn Littrell